Evidence-gated analysis for the fixture you choose
Pick a verified fixture or enter a matchup. Forecasts, market comparison, and staking guidance appear only when the backend confirms the required evidence.
Quick pick
Analyze a match
Select a scheduled fixture for evidence-backed analysis, or enter a hypothetical matchup.
Start with Premier League
Pick a verified fixture from the carousel or enter a matchup below. Verified selections stay authoritative; manual entries remain explicit hypotheticals.
Analysis, evidence checks, and verdicts remain server-authoritative
Upcoming Fixtures
Soft coverage — higher uncertainty while provider evidence is limited.
Quarter Kelly, capped
Stakes are sized on the server with quarter Kelly and a per-league cap, and stay at zero until the model is certified.
Market comparison
Model probabilities are compared with the de-vigged bookmaker price when a verified odds snapshot exists.
Named evidence gaps
Every missing input is listed. A critical gap withholds the stake, and a missing model input withholds the forecast instead of filling it with a default.
Need a refresher on the numbers?
- “Gap” is the model’s probability minus the bookmaker’s fair probability (the price with its margin removed), in percentage points. Until the model is certified, a positive gap is not evidence of value.
- “Kelly stake” is the share of bankroll the backend would stake: quarter Kelly, capped per league, and zero until the model is certified.
- “CLV” (closing-line value) compares the price available when a forecast was made with the last price before kickoff. It is measured after the market closes, never predicted.
Want deeper methodology notes? Dive into the product docs.